One thing we know about this match with clarity: Chelsea have to win it. The Turks, leading 2-1 from the first leg in Istanbul, need only a draw to progress.The surrendering of a goal lead caused misery for Chelsea and its followers on the night, but that one successful strike could prove pivotal. Twenty teams have overcome a first-leg deficit to reach the next round in the Champions League's knockout stages.
Looking specifically at the quarter-final stats is not especially reassuring though. In the Champions League era only one in five of sides that lost the opening match have come back to win the tie overall - one in 20 of which were on the rule that away goals count double.
Chelsea have only overturned an opening-leg defeat once, but what an inspiring example to remember: the epic 4-2 win over Barcelona at Stamford Bridge after the controversial 1-2 defeat in the Nou Camp back in the Round of 16 in 2004/05.
Mateja Kezman, who now plays for our opponents, set up Chelsea's opener that famous night with a brilliant through pass to Eidur Gudjohnsen, who coolly eluded Juliano Belletti (now a possible starter for the Blues) before scoring.
The away goals rule was not required that night. Skipper John Terry's special late header made the aggregate score 5-4 and left Stamford Bridge throbbing.
Underdogs Fenerbahçe are no Barça, of course, though they clearly have a similar South American influence, and a shrewd head coach in Artur 'Zico' Coimbra. His side remained top of the Turkish Super League at the weekend, despite the absence (supposedly through injury) of goalkeeper Volkan Demirel, who kept Chelsea at bay so ably last week.
Fenerbahçe are aiming to reach their first ever semi-final in this competition, and will have noted that great rivals Besiktas won 2-0 at the Bridge four years ago. That was in the group stage, and the then champions of Turkey scored two breakaway goals in five minutes against the run of play.
Zico will not be inspired with confidence by his side's travelling form. Over their last seven away games in the Champions League proper they have drawn two and lost five, including a 6-2 whacking from Manchester United in 2004.
Perhaps aware that he needs to use all his experience to help his players, Zico has publicly criticised his London opponents' style of play. 'Chelsea became a more defensive team after José Mourinho left,' he said this weekend.
'They used to know exactly what they wanted. They used to mark in the opponents' half of the pitch, apply pressure and show high levels of confidence. Now I see Chelsea more restricted to defence, waiting for the moment to counter-attack.'
This could be perceived as another calculated comment by the wily South American straight out of the Sir Alex Ferguson school of psychology, one designed to rile his opponent and provoke an opposite reaction that plays into Zico's hands.
Knowing that Chelsea have the away goal and could progress by scoring once and shutting out his side, those words are a taunt to the Blues to come out and attack. Their last-round performance in the 2-3 defeat in Seville showed that the Turkish champions are happiest in an open game where defence is not the priority.
He knows, too, that Avram Grant has frequently expressed his ambition to see flamboyant football, and that it has not always been forthcoming in his time at Stamford Bridge.
Zico tried something similar before the first leg. The Brazil '82 legend claimed in the pre-match press conference that his side would go for all out attack. On the back of that suggestion, he was no doubt hoping that Chelsea - fast starters scoring quick goals in recent matches - would expect an onslaught and begin the match cagily.
As it was, the team from the banks of the Bosporus were content to congest the midfield, their flying full backs (one Vedersen run apart) hardly in evidence, while a confident and fluent Chelsea cut through them with crisp passing movements.
The Turks barely got going in the first hour and but for poor final passes and finishing the Blues would have had more than back-tracking striker Deivid's 13th-minute own goal to show for their domination.
If his psychology is a little transparent, the Fenerbahçe manager's in-play tactics can be excellent. As last weekend's impressive 2-1 Super League comeback against off-form grinders Kayserispor showed, his ability to reshape a game with substitutions and instructions in the Chelsea game was not a one-off.
In fact the two matches were remarkably similar. Turkey's fifth-placed side opened the scoring on the leaders' home ground and it wasn't until after Zico's first personnel change that Fener looked likely to score. Just as against Chelsea the switch was made on 54 minutes and the man coming on was striker Colin Kazim-Richards - though against Kayserispor he replaced left-back Roberto Carlos, on his return from injury.
Wearing a change strip of yellow and white stripes, white shorts and socks, the Canaries' breakthrough came ten minutes later - as against Chelsea - when the under-pressure visitors conceded a penalty that was converted by impressive Brazilian playmaker Alex.
The hosts' vital winner came in the sixth minute of injury time from supersub winger Semih ?entürk, who had replaced Mateja Kezman on 70 minutes - again, much like the Chelsea match.
The key change in our Champions League encounter arrived at the same point, when Zico switched from a 4-5-1 or 4-4-1-1 formation to a 4-4-2 with the arrival of Kazim-Richards as Kezman's partner. Like Kayserispor, Chelsea failed to deal with the additional threat.
It is unlikely that Chelsea could be stung by the same familiar moves again. Does Zico have other options up his sleeve? In any case, had either Ricardo Carvalho or Michael Ballack dispatched their very good goalscoring opportunities shortly before Fener's first goal, the story of the night would have been very different.
The onus is on London's 'overdogs' to prove that result was a one-off, and we know from that famously roaring Barcelona night that the Bridge crowd can always play its part.
In Istanbul, Chelsea had subdued the Sükrü Saracoglu for an hour, but the Turkish team were buoyed up by the sudden, deafening increase in volume from Fenerbahçe fans once they had equalised. Tonight those supporters will be the (hopefully inaudible) minority.
Half of Turkey, the local saying goes, is always made happy by a Fenerbahçe result - their supporters and enemies being of equal measure. If Chelsea can send the Canaries-hating Turks delirious tonight, we will play the second leg of the semi-final at the Bridge for the first time since Monaco in 2004.
We know that our semi-final opponents would be one of tonight's combatants, Liverpool or Arsenal, with all the history enshrined in our previous European encounters. In many ways it's been a difficult season, but a memorable way to finish it still lies ahead.
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